Posted By jonr on 02 Jan 2013 02:43 PM
Decent quality mini-splits do pretty well in your climate, running a seasonal average COP of about 3 or bit better
I believe they are only reporting the COP for the ~60% of the time/load that the heat pump worked. So say more like COP = 1.7 if you make up the shortfall with resistance heat.
The NEEA study monitored in-situ retrofits on pre-existing conventionally-insulated houses, not whole house solutions for high-R houses. They actually "worked" all the time, but lacked sufficient output for carrying the whole load. Most houses aren't specifically layed out for optimal point source heating too, so sizing the ductless for the whole house usually doesn't make sense in that sort of retrofit- sizing it for the zone is more appropriate.
At +5F (across any range of humidity) almost all inverter-drive mini-splits can deliver ~15,000BTU/hr per ton heating capacity per ton of rated cooling. Many have output ratings somewhat below the 15K at -4F (-20C) too. The Mistsubish H2i series guarantees a capcity of 70%+ of the nominal heat rating at outdoor temps of -13F/-25C. In climates as temperate as Boise you're (almost) never below the rated output temps, let alone below the actual operating temp limits.
The average COP of mini-split mostly affected by the average wintertime outdoor temp, which determines how much of the time it's running at an easy highest efficiency part-load. Capacity is also a function of outdoor temp, and to a lesser extent the outdoor humidity (time spent in defrost mode is time spent not heating.). The mean binned hourly December/January temps in Boise runs ~30-32, a temp at which mini-splits run COP>3.5. The
99% outside design temp is +9F. If you size the ductless for the whole house with a bit of margin for the +9F load it'll be only running a COP of 1.5-2 at design condition, but will be running better than 2.5 on average even in January, and higher still during the shoulder seasons.
If the NEEA retrofit units monitored averaged a collective seasonal COP of ~3 on somewhat a random selection of mini-splits that tested at 8.5-12HSPF, you can bet that newer units testing at HSPF= 12+ will do at least as well if sized reasonably for the load.