First, insulating the foundation with a 2x6 studwall with a poly vapor barrier means the studs are subjected to both the ground moisture and any above-grade exposed concrete moisture/splash-back, and can only dry toward the exterior through the above grade portion of the wall. If it's not too late, putting 1.5" of EPS between the 2x6 studs and the foundation and insulating the stud with unfaced fiberglass and NO interior side vapor barrier would be much lower risk. Putting an inch or more of EPS under the bottom plate as a capillary & thermal break from the slab is worth it too. With the foam + studwall approach the ~R6 of the EPS is sufficient in your climate to keep the moisture buildup in the stud bays well controlled, since only the above-grade section would ever have a condensation, and the condensing surface would be EPS, which is not damaged by the intermittent haze of condensation that forms during the colder hours. At 1.5" Type-II EPS (1.5lbs per cubic foot density) has a vapor retardency of about 2 perms, which is lower than the 3-5 perms you'd get out of interior latex paint, so any ground moisture finding it's way in as vapor still leaves, drying toward the interior. If you have at least 15" of above grade exposure on the exterior of the foundation, or an EPDM or metal-flashing capillary break between the concrete and the foundation sill you could even use foil-faced foam, which is more vapor retardent than poly sheeting.
Using 1.5" of EPS and a 2x4 studwall with R13-15 unfaced batts delivers a higher average or "whole wall" R-value than a 2x6 studwall w/fiberglass and no foam, and it takes up less interior space than a 2x6 studwall.
On the floor stackup it would be better if you put at least 2" of foam, and make it EPS , not XPS. XPS is manufactured with an extremely high global warming impact blowing agent that gives it it's slightly higher R value at any given thickness, but as it leaks out (doing it's damage) over the next 4-5 decades it's R-value drops, eventually hitting the same R value as EPS of similar density.
The OSB subfloor approach will be more moisture susceptible than a 2" concrete mini-slab, but it's fine. A
Roth panel approach will be worth it if you're trying to minimize the overall thickness, since it embeds the tubing in EPS, but it's a cost adder.
Reflective barriers or foil facers have NO useful purpose in this stackup (despite what purveyors of said products might allege.)
Combi boilers even at minimum fire are going to have WAY more heat output than your basement's heat load. A hydronic loop using a heat exchanger off a hot water heater is a cheaper approach, and won't require to upgrade the gas plumbing (or even the gas meter) to handle the higher-fire of a combi-boiler. The AO Smith Vertex is even designed with side-ports specifically for this type of application.
The heat load is primarily a function of exposed exterior wall/window area, not the floor area. The total heat load divided by the available radiant-floor area, and the radiant-floor method used determines the water temp requirements.
If you want to take a pretty-good stab at the rough heat load, get out a measuring tape and start measuring the exterior areas of each sub-type, and we'll come up with reasonable "U-factors" (the average thermal conductivity) for those sub-types from which to calculate the load based on the interior-exterior temperature difference, and the U-factors.
The
99% outside design temp for Toronto is +1F/-17C, and assuming a 70F/21C interior temp, that's a delta-T of 69F, but let's just call 20C or 70F delta just to keep it in round numbers. For the sake of keeping it all in English-unit U-factors and BTU/hour which is more common in N.American HVAC parlance than watts, let's call it 70F.
The U-factor of a clear-glass double pane is about 0.5 BTU/hr per square foot per degree-F. A single pane is about 1 BTU/hr per square foot per degree-F. So measure up the windows & sliders in square feet and do the math. Assuming your 4 "small windows" are 5 square feet each and all clear double-panes, that's 20 square feet of window of window for window losses of about:
U0.5 x 20' x 70F= 700 BTU/hr.
For fiberglass insulated 2x6 walk-out side figure a U-factor of about 0.078. Measure up the exterior studwall are and do the same math, U-factor x square feet x 70F.
Uninsulated poured concrete has a U-factor of about 1.0 BTU/hr-degree-foot, but only count the above-grade wall area down to about a foot below grade, since that's going to be the bulk of the wall losses- the below grade portion will have losses considerably lower. If you're adding an interior side 1.5" EPS + batt insulated 2x4 wall, the U-factor will run about 0.06 BTU/hr-degree-foot. If 1.5" EPS + 2x6/batts, call it U0.05. If just 2x6/batts, U0.75 (slightly better than a regular 2x6 first-floor wall due to a slightly lower framing fraction.)
Any solid wood exterior doors or double-pane glass sliders, figure about U0.5, insulated doors about U0.25.
Ignore the floor losses, and ignore the air-infiltration/ventilation losses, as well as the inputs from warm mammals, electrical plug loads, duct losses to the basement from the upstairs heating system, etc.
Add up all of the losses for each room by sub-assembly type, then add up all of the room totals, and it'll be close enough for designing a heating system.
If your wall stackups or doors & windows differ from what I've given you U-factors for, tell me what the stackup is and I'll estimate the U-factor for you.
Something else to consider for a minimal loss of height: Adding 1.5" of EPS to the floor and putting down a 1/2" OSB subfloor tap-conned to the slab, and using a radiant ceiling rather than a radiant floor only blows 2" of height, and is still pretty cushy. At the likely VERY low per-square foot heat load the difference in floor temperature will hardly be enough to be felt except on the coldest days, and may not be a sufficiently high comfort up-tick to matter or be "worth it" once you've insulated the floor. That can be determined once we know the total heat load and the amount of radiant floor or ceiling that would be needed to support the load.