Hello all, my name is Sean.  I have been doing a considerable amount of research on Solar Energy and stumbled upon this great forum.  There is alot of really good information on here that I have not been able to find elsewhere on the net. 
 I have been SERIOUSLY looking into starting a solar pv panel installation business here in South Carolina where I live.  I have been excited about this career choice because I finally felt like I had found something that truly interested me and that I would enjoy doing!  There are so many things that grab me about having a career in renewable energy.  I want to promote something that, what I think, could help to solve the energy crisis going on here in the US, to not be dependent on foreign oil and "the system", and, to know that I am helping to save the enviroment most importantly.  All I know is I really want to do something to help the world go green, whatever it be.  However, some of my excitement has dwindled away the farther I look into starting the business.  To name a few things that really concern my possible future in this field: The cost of solar panels is just undeniably too high for most people to justify spending that much money on an investment that takes upwards of 10-12 years (minimum it seems) to break even with.  Also, it appears that states are slowly backing down their incentive programs for people who have solar systems installed.  I understand that the fed goverment's 30% is good till 2016, but what happens after that?  Much of the pessimistic side of what Ive read about solar energy is that solar as a whole cannot survive without Government backing, which at the current time, seems to be quite true...due to the price of solar panels right now.  I understand that no one can predict the future of energy, and that this is not something that is going to be solved any time soon.  I wanted to share this article I came across on solar energy and get some of your takes on it:  http://comments.americanthinker.com...30200.html  There is an article titled "solar eclipse" and a comments section that I found interesting.
  
What I would really like is to get some opinions on what ya'll think?  Will electricity prices continue to rise at...whatever it is 7% annually, and pv panel prices continue to fall until it is justifiable to make the switch in the average person's household?  Will pv panels really ever be affordable?  Is this be a good business to get into right now? Or is it just too risky/unknown future?  Like I said, I really like the idea of doing this sort of work, but then again, I cant go into this wondering if ill survive in the business.  I hope I am not sounding selfish, but I am feeling like I am at a make it or break it point in whether or not I am going to pursue this.  I KNOW there is a wealth of knowlegable people on this forum and any and all comments are encouraged and much appreciated!! 

       Also, I spoke with a lady from the South Carolina Energy Office today and she said that there was a 25% credit towards total cost of installed system, along with the 30% from the government.  Assuming I understood everything correctly this would obviously amount to 55% off the entire cost of an installed pv system.  BUT, she was pretty sure that the 25% state incentive was just done away with recently, and the state would be unvailing a new incentive soon. Also, There are no licenses required to install residential pv panels, as long as you do not connect anything..that has to be subbed out to a licensed electrician.  Just wanted to try and give all the information I could since Im sure most of you are working/living in the Southwest region.  I want to thank anyone in advance for their replies.     

Is there something else that pays for itself in 10 - 12 years and then delivers FREE power for another 30 years plus?

When that break-even date rolls around the only thing PV panel owners will be unhappy about is that they didn't put more in.

Electricity will continue to become more expensive over the next 30 years, while the possibility of some crisis that would restrict the deliver of electricity will become greater.

well one get certified two become dealerin what you see as the "best" producer or best value
government incentives do nothing. if / when we acheive feed in tarrifs is when you wil see a BOOM. so educate the masses on tarrifs ie in your brochures join groups pushing for tarrifs

imo say we goto stupid meters that charge alot more during the day when companies and solar panels are running. even if they only return at full cost of power ~15- 25 cent. it goes from a trying to offset power cost to a possible money maker... why only put a 4kw system up instead of 12kw cause the exess is gifted away vs feed in tarriff where you can get paid

The American Thinker makes a bogus case about returns on alternative energy investments. EVERY new market is unprofitable in its formative years. For example, investors made little or no money on car companies until the 1960s, after the Big Three emerged from what was initially a cast of hundreds. Ditto railroads, oil production, software, mobile phones -- any growth market you care to name.
What it does tell you is to expect lots of competition. Happily, you can control your fate as a installer by putting your customers first and doing a great job for them. That would start with your complete understanding of both the technology and business practices. Look for coursework. Get credentials. Find the best contractor in SC and pick his brain, at least, if not lobby him for a job. BTW, everyone in business worries about survival. You want risk, start a restaurant.
History is not encouraging on tax incentives. At the utilities' request, Reagan ended Carter's solar tax credits and removed the collectors his predecessor had installed on the White House. You can expect the utilities to fight back and to win on a regular basis.
But the latest developments in oil prices are encouraging -- for the alternative energy industry if not the rest of us. Oil prices fell in the '80s and '90s as high prices reduced demand. While the same thing happened initially this time, OPEC is raising prices again, in the latest round in response to the Fed's "quantitative easing" (i.e. printing money.) Everyone else in the world has some price stability. Producers raise the price of oil in dollars but the dollar's value falls against the yuan, for instance, so the Chinese pay the same. In the world economy, the US has been the only game in town since WWII, Japan's brief reign notwithstanding. The point here is that one day that will change, and the US will be as energy conscious as the rest of world.

Fossil fuel prices will rise*, solar systems will drop and eventually they will be cost effective. Being able to "sell" power to the utility really helps on the otherwise significant battery costs.

* - hopefully the artificially low prices will not be maintained by the US gov.

Note that natural gas prices have fallen to ~1/3 of what they were just a couple of years ago. This is primarily the result of new shale hydraulic fracturing technology and horizontal drilling opening up vast new areas for natural gas extraction. Forecasts are that natural gas prices will remain low for the foreseeable future as a result of this new excess supply of natural gas. Electricity costs on the open market are essentially set by the cost of electricity produced by natural gas. As a result, electricity costs have fallen in recent years in many areas. As long as natural gas prices remain low, electricity costs will not likely rise any appreciable amount. Without government intervention (subsidies for solar or taxes on natural gas), the prospect for significant solar generated electricity gains is low because the capital cost is so high and the payback point so far out with electricity costs remaining low/stable.

Google [shale gas] for more info.

Where I live, electricity costs today are less than they were 20 years ago.

Lucky you, Arkie6. Rate caps officially came off in Pa. today. Rates are expected to jump 30 percent.

Thank you for the comments everyone.  I have tried to emerse myself with as much "solar stuff" as possible in an effort to make a good decision on my career change, but there is just something to be said for people who have seen it, done it with regards to this subject and their opinions on it.  It is really appreciated.  Toddm, great point about new markets being unprofitable, I have not thought about that.  But, honest question, hasnt solar been around for at least a few decades?  It is obvious that in the link I provided by "The American Thinker" that not everyone has the same thoughts and opinions on Renewable Energy's future in the United States.  I think that they would argue that if it hasnt come around by now, it never will...especially without an enormous amount of gov. backing.  At this point, I think I have come to understand that PRICE is the main factor in holding Solar Energy "from taking off," at least at the current time, (in most states across the country).  Although it seems as though prices have come down quite recently, Im still not sure it'll be enough to create the "boom" in solar that so many RE enthusiasts would love to see.  However, I am going to remain optimistic that prices will continue to go down on solar panels in the future.  Im sure I am behind on this, but I just found out that the white house just recieved a solar makeover as well..  Kind of hard to argue that solar isnt going anywhere when you see this... http://www.energy.gov/news/9641.htm and this  http://www.alternative-energy-news....ar-mirror/  That article out of The American Thinker just kind of got me rattled.  But, I think it is important to listen to both sides of the story/ the good and bad, to make an informed decision on anything important in life.  I have only been realllly following the solar industry for about a year now, but it sure as hell seems I see and hear more every day about "going green", and hints here and there that scream solar will be the future of energy for Americans.

SeanC;

You are right, price is holding back the advancement of solar. But, the cost is getting better, when it becomes affordable or when fossil fuels rise high enough you will see the further advancement of solar energy.

In 1979, Jimmy Carter, in a forward-looking move, installed solar panels on the roof of the White House. This symbolic installation was taken down in 1986 during the Reagan presidency. In 1991, Unity College, an environmentally centered college in Maine acquired the panels and later installed them on their cafeteria.

Posted By cmkavala on 02 Jan 2011 04:39 PM
SeanC;

You are right, price is holding back the advancement of solar. But, the cost is getting better, when it becomes affordable or when fossil fuels rise high enough you will see the further advancement of solar energy.

In 1979, Jimmy Carter, in a forward-looking move, installed solar panels on the roof of the White House. This symbolic installation was taken down in 1986 during the Reagan presidency. In 1991, Unity College, an environmentally centered college in Maine acquired the panels and later installed them on their cafeteria.

The panels installed by Carter were thermal flat panels, installed out where they were visible as something of a statement.

In 2003 under G.W. Bush 9kw of PV was installed at the White House (to remarkably little fanfare) on the top of a maintenance building, as well as some solar-thermal on the White House cabana (similarly on the down-low) to heat the hot tub, and another smaller array to supply hot water for maintenance.  See: http://www.ecomall.com/greenshoppin...ehouse.htm

The former was clearly making a policy statement, whereas the latter was driven by National Park Service policy (they maintain the White House grounds), consistent with rehabs at other Nat'l Park Service facilities. (No credit for dubya, I guess.)

I have a website on the advantages of solar energy including articles on how to make solar panels at home, with DIY step by step instructions.

http://www.thesolarpowerexpert.com

Posted By anniesolar on 23 Jan 2011 09:24 PM
I have a website on the advantages of solar energy including articles on how to make solar panels at home, with DIY step by step instructions.

http://www.thesolarpowerexpert.com

I don't think the advantages are disputed it is the initial affordabilty

I doubt that any alternate energy based on sun or wind will take off big without government input. The logic is simple. Every kilowatt of wind/sun power still has to be backed up by one kilowatt of old fashion power as the grid today is a use it or loss it type. Also most peak power demands are at supper time and latter and in the winter, when the sun is not at its best. The suppliers have to match that demand with supply and cannot count on solar and only sometimes wind. If we eventually figure out how to store power effectively we might make some advancement. For the off gridder that is willing to invest in batteries there is many advantages today but no so much for the masses.

Lee - you are right of course! I'm use to having this discussion north of the 49. I suspect that in a cooling climate photovoltaics could be match quite well to the AC demand. But to be able to count on it with out traditional back up we definitely need to find some economical storage. Once we cross that hurdle than solar can play a part almost anywhere at some part of the year. Bob

The diurnal (daily) variation in electrical load demand peaks during the day in most developed countries because commerical interests are open and active during the day.  I showed data above for the panhandle of Texas, which is mostly rural and mostly cooling dominated.  However, the attachment below shows trends for New York (state?), which is heating dominated (or at least a cool weather state) and includes many metropolitan areas, and it shows peaks for electrical use during the day, especially during the summer.  The figures are from: "Understanding Base Load Power What it is and Why it Matters," October 7, 2008 by Dr. Matthew Cordaro in conjunction with New York Affordable Reliable Electricity Alliance (New York AREA).   

Dr. Cordaro goes on to say:
"Both wind and solar can be considered intermediate power sources. Both are intermittent by nature, as output fluctuates with weather patterns. Wind and solar cannot be relied upon to meet constant supply needs, nor can they be immediately called upon to meet peak demands. They are, however, effective as intermediate sources and can help to reduce the need for fossil fuel intermediate plants or overuse of peaker plants during heavy demand days."  

My point is that we do not need to wait to develop storage for solar power at this point to be able to use it.  Solar power is available when commercial operations need it, and it is a small enough contributor to the grid at this time that storage is not a limitation.  Certainly the hottest days with the highest electrical demands for electricity are almost always the sunniest days, so there is a natural match with solar energy and load demand, although the demand continues after the sun has set.  (This is an argument for solar thermal electrical generators that have an inherent time-lag, as shown above in the Texas Panhandle data.)  Therefore, I suggest that we should research energy storage, but not use it as an excuse to avoid immediate implementation of solar.   

Lee Dodge
http://residentialenergylaboratory.com
in a net-zero source energy modified production home