Maybe the tragedy of the common's "grab it quick, your neighbor's well is depleting the area" isn't a good thing. Ie, make it logical to store it right where it is.

gathering pipelines have been the limiting factors on natural gas production historically. If the pipelines are willing to hook you up, low prices will create demand, as Dana notes.

I know the you said there is a propane furnace and radiant already installed in the new house?? But if you consider this chart from the EIA that showes electtricity predicted to decrease (in2010 $s) over the next 20+ years and propane to increase:

http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/er/pdf/tbla3.pdf

Add to that the fact that Geo would be 350ish % efficient and propane 90ish% can't help but think you'd be money ahead pulling out a new propane furnace and reselling it at some loss and replacing it w/a Geo system. You'd also get your AC in the summer when needed.

Looks like that chart predicts total energy prices to rise approximately 1% per year more than inflation through 2035. IMO, that isn't enough to encourage as much conservation and alternatives as there should be.

Again, what happens to propane prices is very much a function of where you are and, in a major change, New York will soon be a good place to be. That isn't to say that geo wouldn't be cheaper, only that we don't know enough about the OP's situation to tell him to start over. A minisplit heat pump sized to handle the shoulder seasons would buy time while limiting the propane bill. Or with propane as backup, geo could be undersized.
Time of day pricing opens other possibilities: http://www.stsscoinc.com/Products_OffPeak.aspx

The EIA chart makes clear that the world we expected five years ago is not the world we live in today. There is no point in reducing options.

Cool GT'er
and D1 's dare is COOL

Mini
or from Pond GT- IE)


how deep will your pond be? Over 8ft?
has the well been drilled and tested? What is the water to the degree...specifically?

Ponds are directly cooling home all over but if you need more dehumidifying,
Conditionally: to do any chilling at ~ 160 cfm per sqft of air coil x 3 row
and near 4 gpm per ton, starts to dehumidify readily at 55-deg entering

all ponds with bubblers are not good for GT much unless really deep below 11 feet and away from any turn over.
around 18 ft deep can be found the ground temperature,  it is a wide margin
Cooling well enough and is done near a spring water you might hit in digging...
54 absolute or less puts some latent heat out the door if you can call a coil co a give them some guesses they run numbers too- 800--usacoil,  the coil co PA, etc

There may be cause to try and build a hybrid with a W:W
However.
should you like a small Priority Hot Water heating off the cooling 100% recovery-series desuperheater-full condensing (loop pumps shutting off) 1981 patents are up so there are 3 +  building these.

Vertical HVAC GT with DeSuperheaters 3/4 to 1.1/2ton,
but ~ 1.1/2 to 2 tons 100% INSTANT HW and at 4 ton sizes , Compliant for all credits...
Enertec TETCO Phase 4 version and
Hydro-Temp (AR) ((not Hydro-Delta)) can also have a 4 th HX for radiant HW
or you can add a coil in Domestic HW side circulation Tank (coil in tank) and use that for radiant.
Dual compressors to 4-Staging also start at 3.1/2tons for better load matching

 DIRECT COOL WATER COOLERS installed and FOUND in practice:
any sand or grit rips a hole in chilled water coils.  the large RUSCO SS screen filters from St Pete, Fla, have the see through and other features, just don't valve purge at bottom directly-run to a pipe and then valve (threads break valved at base)
DocJ:
I bet these work nice upside down to release air from pressure-less reservoirs-over-head as a splitter for up to 1.1/2" 24 GPM, easy (?)

COOLING directL your chilled water 3-row fan-coil choice is over 300 sq in per desired ton,
54 deg EW available, like a large church in Dayton Ohio is cooling since 1980, (about 260 sq in per ton,  if I  rem)
and dry enough; but not 55% when they speed the fan up for more total, but CHEAP2KEEP design...

We're at 52 wtr  in NE Oh and that allows 2 very good dehumidifying tons , 3-row coil, 220- 260 f CFM per ton across a typical 5-ton chilled water coil, at ~ 200 sq in per ton x 3 row coil
just 6 gpm on a 1/4 hp  blower at a low and baffled air stream 550 cfm est;
 but nearly 2.1/2 tons at 8 gpm and 700 CFM, guessing, baffled-plenum-  sufficient in its application.

It was poor on a 3600 sq ft home with a 7.1/2 Coil 1/2 hp ~ 1650 CFM single speed until the flow was over 10 gpm; better above 12 gpm and at 16 , didn't feel damp at  74/55% ? but all were happy with the 2nd staging results and the $35.oo cooling bills for many years (52-52.5 deg water) for constant 74 inside.
    In really hot high 90's they did the mass-flywheel at setting to 72 inside for night recoveries.
Heating: compare:
The home did not use back up heat (10kw)  on equivalent of today's closed-loop 5-ton sizes (46k compressor at 6 gpm with a 5-ton water coil) until the house dropped to 62 in the -15 degree winters...
Elect HW : 175/mo wholehouse budget    ...chilly nice preacher family of 7.

Recharge wells are rare in Geauga county. Iron plugging, and we only use ~ 3 to 4% rainfall, and the coffe folks had 6-to-10 weeks ago is plenty filtered on it's return to the faucet. Here you go 50 feet and the wells are so different in quality and quantity and dynamis levels in tests. (according to hydrogeologist, a large WF dealer in OH)


....

Posted By toddm on 19 Apr 2012 12:44 PM
I am merely pointing out that docjenser's prognostication abilities are about as good as his understanding of the gas industry.

Thanks, I take this as a compliment! The facts remain.

In New York State (NYS)
1) The price of propane for heating has very reliably followed the price of heating oil in the last 10 years, as the graph I have posted demonstrates. You are telling me that won't happen anymore, well, lets see how good your prognostic abilities are. I take a bet anytime.
2) The retail price for gas is completely disconnected from the price of propane. In the last 2 years, propane was the highest ever in NYS state, while natural gas dropped down to 2004 levels.
://www.nyserda.ny.gov/en/Page-Sections/Energy-Prices-Supplies-and-Weather-Data/Propane/Monthly-Average-Propane-Prices.aspx
3) the gas industry admits that it shot itself in the foot with the kind of overproduction they are. So I am not sure if even the gas industry understands the gas industry well. Even they need an ROI on their drilling costs.
http://www.trefis.com/stock/bhi/articles/110368/baker-hughes-nyse-bhi-warns-energy-service-stocks-in-trouble/2012-03-23

DJ:
Looks like a 1980-1994 all over again~ Elect followed general inflation and the gas fooled people with oil bumps and plateaus repeatedly, like the market...

How deep is the pond RS?
100,000 gal 3xsmall back yard 4 lane pools

look at IBCboilers.com

seen that DJ?

Docjenser 18April2012 12:58p.m.: "That is why the price of propane has almost tripled in the last 10 years, what are you going to do if it triples again, and chances are it will."

If I could predict the future, docjenser, you'd find me on greenyachttalk.com. (Is green yacht an oxymoron?) Then again, my goal isn't to scare someone into a buying decision, and I consider all the known facts, not just those that could put money in my pocket.

You know DJ I was interested in some layout of information in my experiences. I am glad you noted you could use more clarity. But you NEVER made subtle coded messaging nor blatant control-freakish accusation. Thanks for your candor though we may not have time to share all the math of data requisition here together.

There is no evidence of disingenuous presentation on mine nor yours.

There is  what is in gas pricing (charted since 1979, and studied markets only since Jan 2010), a controlling fewer now than the 5 x's as many in 1979... GAS has no more a pattern than a window salesperson: Some think you should pay 1000 , another squirms at 475, same plus-gas window...
-
all I see is electricity since 1979 is more closely following more tightly to general inflation, whereas gas and oil in Ohio has sessions of driving suppliers out of business with wars of low pricing... then skyrockets back to inflation in 6 months at times.
Electricity tried once 3 years ago (again) from the lone First Energy squid, and lost to  - just because other parts they covered had no deregulation (no competition, yet) and courts ordered their return to a regular inflationary structure.

Posted By toddm on 24 Apr 2012 08:02 AM
Docjenser 18April2012 12:58p.m.: "That is why the price of propane has almost tripled in the last 10 years, what are you going to do if it triples again, and chances are it will."

If I could predict the future, docjenser, you'd find me on greenyachttalk.com. (Is green yacht an oxymoron?) Then again, my goal isn't to scare someone into a buying decision, and I consider all the known facts, not just those that could put money in my pocket.

No scare tactic here, simply making making a fair prediction that what happend to pricing in the last 10 years will likely happend in the next 10 years. We are closer to peak supply than we were 10 years ago, and global demand is likely to increase.
For some reasons you continue to accuse people here of financial bias, especially when they object to the discussion points you bring forward.

While a certain bias is unavoidable, people here have an expertise because they work in the industry, most installers or designers here maintain a high level of objectivity and have a track record of helping others without any intend of getting anything in return. You should appreciate that a certain controversy advances the knowledge exchanged here, but instead you sadly cannot go without directly or indirectly implying financial motives when someone here disagrees with you.

Docjenser 02Jan2011 6:14 p.m.: So you look at lets say 1994-2008 period, propane went up from $1.26/gallon up to $3.14/gallon, up 149%. Natural gas went up from $0.87 in 1994 to $1.67 in 2008, up 91%. Electricity (geo operating costs) went from 13.5 cents/kwh to 18.3 cents/kwh, only a 35% increase.

"So if you project the future savings over the next 30 years (which is the expected life expectancy of the heatpump, assuming that erything increases in the same fashion as it did in the last 15 years.
Giving the current savings of $800 annually over natural gas, the projections show heating costs of $150K for natural gas and $57K for geo. So a saving of $93,000 over the next 30 years using geothermal vs natural gas ($235.000 vs peropane), if natural gas goes up in the same fashion in the next 30 years as it did in the last 15 years. I think it will be more, but that is another story. And all that for an initial higher upfront cost of $6.800 out of pocket."

OK, docjenser,if you aren't scaremongering, this is .... what? .... pure idiocy? (See EIA report linked above.)

Why don't you add the numbers and see for yourself. You need to realize that you likely not going to pay the same as you are paying now, so what is wrong to take the historical data and and make a prediction that prices will continue to increase in a similar fashion? That's what the discussion you are citing was all about. Maybe you don't get to talk to people daily who are on oil or propane. What you call idiocy has become very real for them, and they can't afford to follow guys like you who says that betting on propane will not be as risky as I think. Trust me, there is no need to scare people, many are already scared.

"What you call idiocy has become very real for them, and they can't afford to follow guys like you who says that betting on propane will not be as risky as I think. Trust me, there is no need to scare people, many are already scared."

Copy that.

Have you been to a home Todd where the winter norm is 60* by day and 50* at night? Or one literally knocked back to the stone age using a crude (unsafe) home-made central wood burner?
People around here lost jobs with 20+ years of tenure. Or pensions that were counted on (and why shouldn't they be) or health care benifits were dramatically slashed.

These folks did not shop beyond their means. Their means changed.

Do you think they wished they paid an extra $30/month on their mortgage and had geo? You bet they do.

But hey I'll tell them that Toddm says propane's not that bad and that they shouldn't let me scare them off it.

I explained before what's wrong with the way YOU make predictions based on historical data, docjenser. From the same thread, me writing:


And then there is (docjenser's) projection of $150,000 in heating costs over 30 years, which assumes that natural gas price hikes continue at the 1993-2008 pace. When Arkie6 pointed out gas prices were unusually high in 2008, docjenser answered, "that is why one should look at a long term period, like the 15 years I gave as an example, and not just cite one very high versus very low year!"
Now really we need one of Jeff Foxworthy's fifth graders here, but I'll do my best. A statistical snapshot is based on just two numbers whether there is 15 years separating them or 15 months. Pick the right two years and you can make any case. For example, natural gas delivered to the home cost a national average $5.86 in Jan., 1983. 15 years later, in 1998, it cost $6.41, for an annual inflation rate of 1.1 percent. http://www.eia.doe.gov/dnav/ng/hist/n3010us3m.htm
By docjenser's projection method, it should cost $7.39 today. Not quite, you say?
From 1993 to 2008, gas prices climbed 11.5 percent a year. So which is period has more to say about the future? I have no earthly idea. But neither does docjenser.


I still have no idea what gas prices will be like 10 years hence, but the Department of Energy obviously believes we are back in the gas glut days of 1983. The predictions here are about one percent inflation a year for natural gas and propane prices through 2035. So in the kindest spin I can put on it, for docjenser to cherry pick statistics and predict double digit annual price increases when the experts say it will be far less is idiocy on his part.

Now, let me tell you what true risk is. It is adding $20k to your mortgage when your job is iffy and the real estate market sucks. Real risk is cashing in retirement accounts in an era when Ron Paul says the sick uninsured should be left to die and debate-goers applaud.

That isn't to say that geo isn't the best answer in many cases. Nor is it to say that big jumps in energy prices can't happen. But to present high inflation as certainty makes the forecaster a ____ And we'll let the reader fill in the blanks.

; Forgot the link to DOE's forecasts http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/er/pdf/tbla3.pdf

Posted By toddm on 30 Apr 2012 05:15 PM



I still have no idea what gas prices will be like 10 years hence, but the Department of Energy obviously believes we are back in the gas glut days of 1983. The predictions here are about one percent inflation a year for natural gas and propane prices through 2035. So in the kindest spin I can put on it, for docjenser to cherry pick statistics and predict double digit annual price increases when the experts say it will be far less is idiocy on his part.

Now, let me tell you what true risk is. It is adding $20k to your mortgage when your job is iffy and the real estate market sucks. Real risk is cashing in retirement accounts in an era when Ron Paul says the sick uninsured should be left to die and debate-goers applaud.

That isn't to say that geo isn't the best answer in many cases. Nor is it to say that big jumps in energy prices can't happen. But to present high inflation as certainty makes the forecaster a ____ And we'll let the reader fill in the blanks.

Yabbut, toddm, even at 0% price inflation on propane you can't make a case for heating with propane compared to ductless air source or geo.  With ductless the total systems cost would be fairly neutral or even cost-negative compared to separate systems with propane for heat, but still significant cost adder for geo, even with a 30% tax credit to work with.

It's true that the re-sale value case for geo (or any building efficiency measure beyond code-min) is iffy, so if this isn't your dream-house to retire to or something that you plan to live in for at least 5 years the case for geo is pretty thin, but at 10 years it looks pretty good compared to propane even assuming 0% inflation on propane.  A sharper-pencil is needed to parse the payback comparing un-subsidized ductless to subsidized geo. But without the federal subsidy high efficiency ductless wins every time if the ductless can handle the design condition load. A decade ago in Sweden installations of GSHP systems used to dominate heat pump sales, but as of 5 or 6 years ago the rising availability of high efficiency air source capable of handling Sweden's cooler design temps flipped that around.  As early as 2008 it was 4:1 in favor of air source despite a €3500 subsidy for geo.  (Mind you, most of populated Sweden is a bit more temperate than central NY, but it's not exactly Spain or Greece.  Heating design temps are still in single-digits F even at sea level locations. )

Not advocating for anything except respect for numbers.

SInce 1979 in Ohio, propane paces with oil , and gas sells like a window salesman; and  with all attempts to drive out competition.   Here electricity has so little competition in the First Energy realm...

Posted By joe.ami on 30 Apr 2012 10:49 AM

Have you been to a home Todd where the winter norm is 60* by day and 50* at night? Or one literally knocked back to the stone age using a crude (unsafe) home-made central wood burner?
People around here lost jobs with 20+ years of tenure. Or pensions that were counted on (and why shouldn't they be) or health care benifits were dramatically slashed.

These folks did not shop beyond their means. Their means changed.

Do you think they wished they paid an extra $30/month on their mortgage and had geo? You bet they do.

But hey I'll tell them that Toddm says propane's not that bad and that they shouldn't let me scare them off it.

apparently todd you found these questions inconvienient. I'll ask again.
Interested in answering this time?