I've told friends and customers that recently I've been baited into defending the costs of geo installation. Indeed some of our friends here have kept a thread alive soley to justify the expense of geo. Funny we don't see anyone defending the cost of staying with fossil.
Here's some facts;
In my area (mid MI) the average horizontal 4 ton system may cost 12 to 20 K (depending on features and job requirements) and average paybacks are 8 years against natural gas and 4-6 years against propane or oil. DX, water source, open or closed loop; it out performs your pension plan. So frankly the only way to pay to much is to not buy.
I'd like to hear consumer reports of success and pay back.
I'd also like my peers agree that brand and type are way less important than just going geo!
Joe

Your logic is correct but there are a couple issues I see (devil's advocate)

1) Fossil equipment is well understood by contractors / installers. geo is not.

2) Who's to say we won't see the same kind of run-up in electricity costs that we've seen in fossil fuels? That would shift the math a bit.

3) What if a homeowner invests 20-40k in geo, the installer screws up, and the payback is never? We here are effectively bailing out the Piazza job...how many out there are screwed up and aren't getting fixed?

Actually geo is quite well understood by geo contractors (this is where references help buyers seperate the wheat from the chaff). The intimidation factor keeps the "fly by nights" out of geo more than fossil. You are more likely to get an incompetant fossil installer (which incidentally puts your family in real danger) as product is more readily available to them.

If electricity costs run-up, I'm still 300 to 400% efficient. Can't imagine gas staying stable while electricity rises but if it could the greater electricity cost would impact fossil equipment as well making our product continue to be a good buy.

Some one who invests 20-40K for a screwed up installation has probably failed to do their home work and been stolen from by an unscrupulous "contractor" aka thief. Again "fly by night" contractors are way more common in the fossil market. Seldom is the total job a bust. In a recent thread about a product that was to make on demand hot water as well as heat, we determined that the heat pump itself might be unreliable but not the loops or the duct work. That left the consumer's exposure at loosely 8K (about a 2 or three year pay back added on to the original projections), not great but still a pay back not a loss.
Re Piazza; as you said you are playing "Devil's Advocate", I've been under the impression from the start that Linda's contractor hadn't even looked at the equipment before we reached our conclusions. To suggest we saved the day here is more than a stretch. Because Linda did her homework (250 installations) I've every reason to believe her contractor will solve the problem. By the way (assuming compaction is the issue) if left alone, mother nature would have fixed the product in a year or so and Linda still would have done okay as winter savings would have outpaced 2 weeks of summer shortcomings.
If there are screwed up units out there that aren't getting fixed....I can't help if they don't call or visit us here!
J

I guess I agree that the upfront compexity of geo reduces the proportion of hacks in that end of the business.

I rescanned Linda's thread and it appears the original installer hasn't been back. I would have hoped the guy would make it a priority to get back there upon hearing that the EWT was way over design. Homeowner having spent $18k shouldn't have to deal with the compaction issue.

I wonder if the high EWT issue would have manifested itself fairly quickly given that the system was installed in drought conditions.

It's generally like buying a a Compact Fluorescent bulb is the analogy you need to make. Sure, it costs more, but it operating costs a lot less.

As for engineer's point 2 - it doesn't work. Fossil fuels don't have a true ceiling on cost. Home energy does - at some price point, it only makes sense to generate electricity with solar panels, which are coming down in price per watt - not up. Fossil fuel is free to keep going up as long as people need it for their vehicles and other portable generation needs.

My concern is that electricity will become more expensive either owing to a significant increase in the cost of coal or imposition of a carbon tax, which will heavily impact use of coal. Coal-fired power plants are the majority of our generation base, and are at best 40% efficient, with another 5-10% lost in transformers and transmission lines.

Coal is among the most CO2-intensive fuels, so efforts at heading off global warming will weigh heavily on coal.

Electricity is a bargain at the moment, but that may not always be so.

Solar Photovoltaic and net metering may become a mainstream option, but it isn't ready for prime time yet

If a carbon tax was imposed, it would hit natural gas, oil, and propane too, though you are correct to say not as bad as perhaps coal would face.
Currently, there's not much chance that coal as a resource would go up in price. But if it did, it could push up natural gas and oil prices as plants favoring that would be run more. Eventually it brings it closer to solar costs. Also the worse energy prices get, the more people funnel money into getting alternative energies going. In general, it's possible for oil, and gas to rise faster than electric rate increases, the reverse isn't as true because oil and gas can generate electricity.

2 observations;
A) Linda's contractor was a week out during abnormally hot conditions (not a suprise) when they knew her house was still being cooled. Contractor priorities in that circumstance- 1) people with no ac 2) people with not enough ac and 3) someone with a concern (after a two week footprint) that they might be using too much electricity.
Please do not think that I'm making light of the Piazzas' concerns. I think we've established that their concerns were genuine, but 1 month ago they hadn't placed an order yet (you may remember the am "I crazy for going with a DX first timer" thread). That said their contractor is doing terrific turn around times so it's a tad unfair to suggest that he's not on the ball for being a week out on usage concerns. I agree that homeowner shouldn't have to deal with compaction issues, but most owners are not proactive like the Piazzas'. Stuff happens that's why there are warranties. Nobody has contracted for long with out something going wrong, the difference is what they do to make it right. If Linda said they had no ac and their contractor said wait a week I'd be on board with your criticisms.
B) On top of Senecarr's observations, let's not forget that fossil systems use electricity as well and therefore cost more to operate when electricity goes up.
J

In my area they are running a special to convert from Oil to 95% efficient gas systems and people are tripping over themselves to convert. If they only had a clue that Geothermal is 300% efficient at it's worst would they still be converting from one dinosaur to another? 
 

Thanx TG,
We have other contributer's here who bring up insulation or windows and it's all apiece of the puzzle, but the fact of the matter is that a 95% efficient furnace with the best insulation and windows will cost more to run than geo system with R-11 and aluminum double panes (try the heat load on any calc software). Most window or insulation improvements add 10% or less savings each while geo might cut it by 3/4th's (depending on fuel).
A 2000sf house I loaded out today could pick new windows and insulation for a 20% savings on propane, or a $16K geo system to drop the heating/cooling hot water production cost from 6K/yr to $1,500.
Not sure what the windows would cost but....

Geo is the best , In my mind there would have to be a drastic change in direction for that to change ie. oil prices not only drop but drop to the point where consumer confidence returns . electrical rates spike ( very possible in area' s that generate using fossil fuels ) but in order for them to take of mainstream the initial investment has to be addressed the CHIF fed. loan is  a good tool 25k 1,3,6% over 10 years , but that is a very inconvenient process . If the incentive programs came close to PV it would be a non-issue the investment would be close enough to a standard retrofit we would sell them on every job. By the way I love the idea of a carbon tax but as long as our grand representatives are bought and paid for I wont hold my breath

By the way not a fan of any tax/penalty imposed by the gov for what I think is best for my household. Dirty secret; I live on a small lot with natural gas. I'd have to go vertical/ leaving when the yougest (14) graduates/ 8-10 yer payback (at my cost), don't tax me here. How 'bout credit instead.
I haven't brought it up on this thread, but 2 most common electric providers (in my area) sell gas. no utility rebates are coming. Geo doesn't work here (in my parameters)...for a geo installer, but, you offer a tax credit......

the current incentives in my area . power co. 500 per ton up to 3500. 500 from state. federal chif loan 500 fed rebate and property tax exemption from state approved by all local municipality's for the increase in assesed value of a home ( often overlooked ) adding geo will increase the value of your home about 10-15k. and a portian of the expense and be deducted on your federal income tax, not much an extra 500 hundred back. this is nothing when compared to commercial where the list is twice as long. as far as building for net 0 . the real problem with any fossil feul is not just economic its ethical. ( I know ill sound a little nuts ) It is destroying our planet , I have 2 kids and love the outdoors , ocean and want my kids to be able to as well. call me whatever you want but I would love to see oil at 200 hundred a barrel or higher I would love a carbon tax and geothermal electric plant's pop up everywhere ,feul cells in cars , and hydrogen generators coupled with good PV on every house. because I truely beleive we are running full spead at a cliff and to busy counting our money to see it coming. Sorry if its off topic but when comparing fossil's to geo it should be brought up

GF, we enjoy no incentive from local electric companies (two biggest in MI merged with gas companies) and have no state incentive, but still have projected paybacks for horizontal fields in <5 years against propane. I don't mind the reduction in carbon footprint, but for anyone un concerned with that there are still few better vehicles for our investment dollar.
Mind you this calculation is not even factoring added value to the home or projected cost of replacing existing fossil equipment during pay back period or shortly thereafter.
At a time when electric baseboard heat looks reasonable; geo trumps.
J

That's it? Only $3500? My state is much more enlightened, they are offering a whole $100 rebate on geo installs, hell that's 10,000 cents, I don't know where I'll spend all that loot. On a brighter note, they are offering a $500 to convert to Natural gas... Perhaps the Gas lobby offers bigger congressional payoffs than the geo guys. 

What's this about a Federal rebate? i'll take anything I can get at this point. 

It's too funny, after quoting me a 15k replacement system, the contractor is offering me a $325 digital setback themostat. When I told him that geo's don't get the same kind of savings as gas/oil systems, why is he offering it to me? I'm getting raped, and I know it, but with the NJ state energy saving plan, I get access to cheap loan financing. Otherwise I'd have to raid the 401k plan for the cash... but I bet I could have it done at 2/3 of the cost otherwise. 

 
  

TG,
I think the federal rebate referred to is the 2005 energy credit which if I'm not mistken is limited to new construction at this point. $100 is more than we get in MI. I think the Chif loan referred to is the Conn. program (not available here).
Again at the end of the day our systems pay for themselves in around 5 years, it still beats the performance of your 401K.
By the way, if you can put in a 4 ton system for 10 or 11K, you can do all my jobs as a sub-contractor and I'll laugh all the way to the bank on a 15 to 16K sale.
J

My cousin is in HVAC, but not specifically in the Geo field. He can get me a FHP GTO-42-1 for $6,800 and an Ev-42-1 $7,300. I can do all the electrical wiring required. This is strictly a replacement for an existing system, not a new complete install. I'm getting from the contractor is a Water Furance Premier unit P046T with Desuperheat, 5KW backup heat, extra water tank all wired. I have to use the "Approved" NJ contractor to take advantage of the Energy star program offered by the state, if for some reason this doesn't work out, I'll get the cash from my 401k and have my cousin help me install it. I'm figuring 10k for the same DIY setup.   

Actually the original system he quoted me was a Comfort-aire, $6,500 delievered, installed with Desuperheater and 5KW, but I've never heard of it before, I feel better going with something I recognize like a FHP or WaterFurance.

A Comfort-Aire is a Climatemaster with less pretty cabinet out of Jackson MI. It also goes by the names Century and Heat Controller. They deal in fossil furnaces as well re-labling the Rheem family of products.