I think you will find that a top end geothermal system will be slightly more efficient.
I think that efficiency, as always, will depend on the conditions. When a geothermal system operates, both the compressor and loop circulation have to run. Operation of a ductless mini can entail low speed operation for lower demand conditions.
In mild climates, it is worth determining if the lower upfront cost and more efficient operation of a ductless mini doesn't outweigh the benefits of ground source.