If you can get 1.5" XPS in there you'll be at R7.5, the dead-minimum for dew point control with just latex as the interior vapor retarder. With polyiso you'd be at R9 nominal.
The highest R knee in the curve is when the center-foam temp is at +15C/59F, at which point polyiso is running R6.7/inch. With the mean January outdoor temp in Chicago running around ~25F/-4C. With R20 cavity fill and a 20C/68F interior the mean temp through the foam is going to be around +5C/41F, so according to the curve it'll be average R3.3/inch (R5 @ 1.5") during the dead of winter riding on the steep part of the derating curve, but much higher on the warmer winter days and in the shoulder seasons. Your sheathing would still be OK if using 1.5" polyiso rather than 1.5" XPS despite the R5 average performance during the very coldest month since it's R-value rises SO rapidly with higher temps. The derating curve for iso in that article is much more severe than others I'd seen elsewhere, but if that curve reflects the current state of off-the-shelf polyiso, the 1.5" XPS would edge it out on heating season thermal performance.
A layer of half-inch polyiso plus 1 inch of XPS would have a nominal R comparable to the 1.5" XPS, but the polyiso would be in the better-performance range nearly alway, since the modest gains in R at low temp from the outer EPS would keep it there. (edited to add) It would appear that BSC also recommends that approach- see the recommendations
at the bottom of this page:
---------begin quote
For cold service temperatures the following recommendations are offered:
Use
thicker layers of polyisocyanurate insulation to ensure that the
performance meets expectations. NRCA’s most recent recommendations are
to assume that polyisocyanurate has R-5.6 / in. when designing for warm
climates and R-5.0 / in. when designing for cold climates.11
Use
a hybrid insulation approach – install cold temperature-tolerant
insulation over top of the polyisocyanurate insulation to increase the
mean temperature of the polyisocyanurate.
----------end quote
It would be useful to know more of the specifics of the polyiso sample tested- it's pretty bizarre to have such a hard knee and steep slope to the derating over such a narrow temperature band. The derating curves on the above BSC page are different from the four different manufacturers, but don't have a severe a hockey-stick appearance of the sample curve in that blog bit:
