I keep getting a gloom and doom email from a panel seller that prices are going up 35%! Any truth to that?? Chris

The ITC has ruled on the trade case that damage has been done and has made a couple of different recommendations for tariffs, but they haven't been implemented (yet) by the Trump administration, who could also do something completely different, anything from no tariff to something off-the-charts expensive.

The 35% recommendation came from just one commissioner (Rhonda Schmidtlein, currently the ITC chair), and differed quite a bit in the level of detail of how it was to play out compared to some of the other commissioners. But there is no way to tell what the Trumpians are going to pull. (My guess would be it'll be something completely different, but can't say whether it'll be something better or something worse for the solar industry as a whole.)

For more detail on the ITC commissioners' range of recommendations:

https://www.utilitydive.com/news/itc-proposes-3-solar-trade-case-remedies-with-tariffs-quotas-and-capped-im/508596/

Mind you, the wholesale panel market has already priced-in some of the potential tariff impacts since even before the ITC ruled in favor of the plaintiffs, which is why the panel seller is already feeling the pain.

Well, it looks like 30% is now official.

Posted By sailawayrb on 23 Jan 2018 03:39 PM
Well, it looks like 30% is now official.

Yep- jus' makin' 'merica grate agin...

Economists of all political stripes view this sort of tariff as an economy-damaging measure. The benefit to the domestic PV manufacturing industry is fairly small, and within the four year window domestic production volumes can't realistically be ramped up quickly enough to even remotely meet demand. Most analysts believe the economic damage to the PV installation industry is likely to be greater than any PV manufacturing industry benefit. As a tool tariffs are just way too blunt to be useful, most of the time.

From a domestic PV manufacturing industry support perspective, expansion of funding for things like the DOE technology prize makes a lot more sense:

https://energy.gov/articles/department-energy-announces-prize-competition-accelerate-us-based-solar-manufacturing

The US really shines at technology development, and it helps the economy more to keep promoting that strength rather than focusing primarily on commodity-production. Highly automated PV production employs fewer people per PV-megawatt (and at lower wages) than PV installers. GTM is projecting about an 11% reduction in US PV installations resulting from this tariff than would happen without the tariff, with proportionately lower employment numbers. But it's still expected to be a growth industry, in spite of the damage, since dispatchable PV + battery is already cost competitive with just the operation & maintenance costs of existing coal fired power plants in some US markets, even with the tariff factored in.

Well, since the tariff was announced, at least one Chinese panel company has solidified plans to set up a manufacturing plant here in the US and it looks like several others are looking to take the plunge too.

So yeah, it's an accounting song and dance. And prices will still remain higher.
But there will be jobs for Americans, and there'll be a bump to tax revenues.

Jinko Solar had already been close to committed to build a plant in FL prior to the tariff was final (and even prior to the FTC case being settled). Estimates are that the cost of production will be 10-15% higher in the US than in Asia, so they'll be able to compete against the initial 30% tariff fairly well with decent margin, but it's highly questionable whether they can ramp up production sufficiently in the 4 year window as the tariff steps down to recover the costs of building the plant. Jinko has the first-mover advantage, but it's still very risky. They may have other strategies in mind for the longer term.

The number of manufacturing jobs gained won't be as numerous as the number of installation jobs forgone- due to the increasingly automated manufacturing process. This is a net US job loser according to every analyst who has looked at it in detail. There is speculation that PV production in India not subject to the tariff may fill in some of the gap, making Jinko's move even riskier, but saving some US installation jobs.

https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/jinko-solar-first-us-manufacturing-trump-solar-tariff

Plus, even if tariffs spur some level of new investment, it may not be enough to offset broader solar industry effects -- particularly with respect to jobs. The Solar Energy Industries Association projects 23,000 solar jobs will be lost this year as a result of the tariffs. As one example, Trump's trade action was the nail in the coffin for Vermont-based Soveren Solar, which closed shop this week after confronting a series of policy blows.

According to Mandloi of Credit Suisse, virtually all solar module manufacturing plants coming online around the world today are automated, except for some regions in China where labor is cheap. That means the employment benefits of any new manufacturing plants will be minimal, while the job losses in solar installation could be significant.

I fully agree Dana. However, Artificial Intelligence will drastically eliminate the need for people in all industries and not just solar. The day isn’t far off when the initial product design through tooling build and product manufacturing phases will be entirely accomplished by AI. The need for people in the manufacturing industry will cease to exist as time increases.

At some point, basic survival instincts trump greed and wealth. So the need for fossil fuels will also eventually cease to exist given the realities of global warming. So I suspect that the folks who say otherwise to preserve their current wealth stream will ultimately find themselves on the wrong side of history. And as Edmund Burke once said, the only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing. All tyranny needs to gain a foothold is for people of good conscience to remain silent. So don’t sit on the sideline and watch...get involved.

Putting scale & perspective on it, in raw numbers the 23,000 solar job loss this year projected by the SEIA analysts is about 1/3 the total number of people working in the US coal industry.

If a tariff was projected to reduce coal employment by a third to the benefit a tiny minority of coal operators, would this (or any) administration take that deal?

Tariffs are way too blunt an instrument to apply here, fixing nothing while doing measurable damage.

Solar and environment is screwed for the time being. Coal and oil are again King. The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants. It has been almost 50 years since the party of Nixon has taken us here. While the American population keeps getting dumber the true nature of Republicans has become crystal clear and we now have a recorded reality TV show for history that even morons might comprehend thanks to Traitorous Trump and his spoiled seed. As soon as the Republicans again destroy the economy that our first black president successfully saved and grew they will be despised like never before. I think the divide is clear and has become too wide to span. Lots of people get bad doctors reports every year so its only a matter time before political debate ends and bloodshed begins. Join the fight or find a place to hide and weather the coming storm.

Solar isn't screwed, and coal will never be king. Solar + battery storage is being bid for deliver in the early 2020 at below even the operating cost of the average coal fleet in Xcel's portfolio, and wind + battery is being bid even cheaper than that. Solar & wind power will continue to be growth industries in the US, even with a few petty headwinds thrown at them by knucklehead politicians.

https://www.utilitydive.com/news/xcel-solicitation-returns-incredible-renewable-energy-storage-bids/514287/

The Red State Renewables people know how to do the accounting math, as do average Republican state politician (with enough exceptions to prove the rule.) eg: http://www.palmettoconservativesolarcoalition.com/ Wind & solar are cheaper than coal & oil, and will only become more so, independently of which party or person is in office.

GreenTechMedia (GTM) projects that the 30% tariff will only result in an 11% reduction in what had been projected to be installed over the time period covered by the tariff, but it's still a strong growth industry. That's a measurable hit, more than a mere annoyance, but nothing like a crippling blow, not exactly "screwed", just hampered (and unnecessarily so.) According to their (usually correct) analysis:

Even with the new tariffs, GTM Research expects the industry to deploy more than 10 gigawatts of solar installations in the U.S. this year, and 11.9 gigawatts next year, with continuous growth through 2022.

https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/tariffs-to-curb-solar-installations-by-11-through-2022#gs.2fEicGw

Most industries would LOVE to see growth rates as large as the new, not-so-improved tariff environment of the US PV industry. But a lot of us would prefer to see the growth and employment levels that would happen without the tariff headwind holding it back. Solar is DEFINITELY not screwed!

Audrey Zibelman (CEO of Australian Energy Market Operator the nationwide utility in that country, formerly a regulator in NY state) is fond of saying that trying to stop the transition to renewable energy is like trying to stop the internet. It's true. The coal and oil folks know it's true, and so do the wind & solar people. It's only a matter of how fast. For a couple of decades the implementation has been faster than most predictions, even as those predictions have been updated. GTM's recent track record has been pretty good, we'll see how this pans out over then next couple of years.