Hi All,
   Just wanted to intro myself - Hi !
I hate to start on a sour note - But things still are not so chipper! I heard a quote from a Local business paper, "While observers see signs of an improving residential real estate market, many said commercial real estate could face an even more challenging 2010, including foreclosures and falling sale prices."
 
Is there an end in sight? (Rhetorical Question) ..and HELP !!




Rob
HomeRun Homes
Rent to Own Homes
http://www.Lease2Buy.com

Yes! there is an end in sight,some say 2012

I hope so - we are just absolutely getting killed.

There are 2 basic drivers for commercial real estate, investment capital and demand from tenants.

I work for a large real estate development company (mostly office, but we also do some residential and commercial) and our financial people are saying that there has been an unexpected increase (please note that expectations were very low) in capital availability in Q1 this year. 

Absorption rates have not changed significantly, but rental rates are stabilizing.  I view this as the bottom, but until absorption rates increase (decreasing vacancies) and the regional banks (who still have a lot of real estate exposure) have healthy balance sheets, there is little to push the general market up in 2010.  The regional bank situation is still scary and probably what the article refers to.

Please note that markets are highly regional and the above comments are very general.  There is still a lot of volatility in the financial markets and it will not take much (like Greece) to create more chaos.  We don't see much good news this year, but there does not seem to be additional bad news, either.

Bruce

Hi Bruce,
Thanks so much for putting my mind at ease. I'm just hoping that on a local level, we can gain the same confidence here, as well.



Rob
HomeRun Homes
Rent to Own Homes
http://www.Lease2Buy.com
http://blogging.Lease2Buy.com

Bruce , where are we now as far as money supply I was reading things are tightening up with fannie and the federal gov using up alot of the money supply.

The Fed's move to prop up Fannie and Freddie will have some effect on bond prices and housing loan interest rates, but I don't think it will have an effect on the overall money supply. The problem is that no one is going to lend money for a residential or commercial project unless it is VERY secure. Investors are a bit more willing than lenders. Financing a spec project is impossible, at least in the USA. Demand in most markets (at least for commercial projects) just is not there. It takes job growth to stimulate commercial office demand. I do not see commercial real estate markets getting worse, but there is little to cheer about in the near term.

We have just completed a long cycle of abnormal growth in real estate and retail consumption (fueled largely by residential real estate "equity"). My colleagues who have been in business less than 15 years had never seen a recession. Part of the problem is that we really don't know what "normal" is going to be. It can't (and shouldn't) be what it was.

Bruce

Before every one gives up be aware that some loans are available for conventional residential projects in low to moderate price range.  But this type of financing is mostly from large home building companies.  Although it is not for spec building it can still get a qualified person into a brand new home.

By the way, my town has gotten back into the spec building business but not in a big way yet.  I think small affluent areas like Auburn will be the first places to start pulling out of this bad economy.

Fannie and the feds have been propping up this economy for quite awhile thru low intrest rates, subsidized loans, and loose lending policies that served not only to delay the inevitable but also to dig a deeper hole in which to throw money.

Thanks for all of this info...glad I vented

Hi Everyone,

Thanks for all to give this information . It is very helpful to each and everyone

American Institute of Architects 'politically correct answer' is that after about 50 months of downtime
things are improving. expected institutional (city,state,fed work) is keeping construction going with health care
and schools next for improvement the next 18 months.

everyone else?

full recovery expected to be 7 to 12 YEARS!

yes folks Wall Street LOOTED the national treasury.

my reply maybe in 2 to 4 years before we are making progress. Bill Moyers Journal http://www.pbs.org/moyers/journal/07182008/watch2.html

Posted By homerunhomes on 05 May 2010 06:15 PM
I hope so - we are just absolutely getting killed.

Well are you sure about what you wrote...... ? Plz explain.....