Hi ICFHybrid:
I'm not sure how to answer your question.
I think that you are saying that any heat lost from the hot water heater will simply help heat my crawl space. I use electric resistance heaters - baseboard heaters.
Are you saying that the total electricity bill for hot water AND heating the basement will be the same? Or, said another way, the amount of electricity not used by the baseboards will be the inverse of that portion of the electricity used to heat the water but is lost to the crawl space from the water heater?
Won't that be true only if I heated the water and the crawl space to the same temperature?
I don't think I understand your question or even my answer.
Rob.