I just discovered that my utility does have a residential time of use rate option available, just not widely advertised. Basically a 5 cent discount for 9 pm to 8 am in exchange for a 4 cent penalty during the rest of the day. I might start shopping for tanks! And control systems with all the features jonr suggests, which might be hard to find!

But I will also read some ISONE reports to understand the carbon implications.

Rats. Marginal CO2 emissions are higher for off peak hours than for peak hous in New England.

http://www.iso-ne.com/static-assets/documents/2016/01/2014_emissions_report.pdf

Does that mean I should buy a tank and shift my use to peak hours? Probably not, as the difference is small.

The cost problem with geothermal in most markets is economies of scale. Not enough business necessitates higher prices. Higher prices discourage sales. I mention this because Indiana is an exception -- a busy market with good prices
. I would encourage you to scope out your local market before abandoning Geo. Your local building inspector will know competent subs although many are prohibited from making recommendations. Sometimes an artful question will do the trick. Towit: if I checked permits who would be the busiest Geo contractor?
A caution: you should know how you're building the envelope and what your BTU needs are before deciding on HVAC. Geo could be overkill.

Posted By docjenser on 01 Apr 2016 12:23 PM
A couple things to consider:

1) There is price to using the grid as a needed buffer. Without the storage problem solved, the costs per KW will go up with the need to have the backup capacity ready. People are paying over 30 cents/kwh in Germany.
2) The Saudis caused the current oil price with a snip of a finger, initiated and supported by the US. They have the financial reserves to hold out longer, and the lowest production costs world wide. It is easy for them to get us back to $100/bbl, but they do not want to right now.
3) This is an aircraft carrier, it does not turn around on a dime. When they (and the UAE, and other gulf countries) decide to reduce production, a lack of infrastructure investment in the last couple years will create a supply problem. Lets see where oil prices are then. Fact is that the world uses more oil than ever before, and a record number of drill rigs parked at idle. Current wells are diminishing capacity, and new once are not drilled. Taking 10% of the oil off the market will double to quadruple prices soon.

Germany was paying high power rates BEFORE the massive build out of renewables. Renewables are stabilizing their rates, not driving them up (even though they arguably paid way too much for solar under their original feed-in-tariff structures.) The high subsidy costs of German nukes was put onto the taxpayers more than the ratepayers, but the decision to retire the nukes early has been a bit of a cost driver more recently as decommissioning costs come due sooner. German investment in efficiency driven in part by high electric rates is paying off in falling rates due to falling demand, even during econonomic expansion.

http://energytransition.de/2015/02/what-electricity-really-costs/

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-25/why-do-germany-s-electricity-prices-keep-falling-

The amount of storage needed to run the US with 100% PV is high, but that's never been a realistic scenario. The amount of storage needed in the US to keep the regional grids stable is much less than in Europe due to the large scale grid geography and already built out grid infrastructure, though there are cases to be made for new transmission lines to bring more cheap midwestern wind into the southeastern US & elsewhere. ( http://www.utilitydive.com/news/how-doe-is-leveraging-federal-authority-to-ease-transmission-development/416724/ ) Multiple simulations done by multiple parties using weather data over recent decades have shown that an all-renewables PJM region actually takes LESS grid storage to pull off (practically none) compared to a 75% renewables scenario. But now that demand response is allowed bid into the wholesale power markets the amount of grid storage necessary is much lower than any of the prior simulations of a predominantly wind & solar PJM grid. A smart water heater or smart car-charger is a lot cheaper for the ratepayers than a utility owned & operated grid battery.

The Saudis are actively seeking buyers for their oil business to establish a sovereign wealth fund rather than continuing to bank on an all-oil future. They are (wisely)starting to get out of that business:

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/apr/01/saudi-arabia-plans-to-sell-state-oil-assets-to-create-2tn-wealth-fund

They DO have to rein in their budgets, but the notion that their plan is to simply re-ratchet up to $100/bbl oil again has some holes in it. They seem more keen on becoming a world class financial center than staying in the oil business. Once they're out of the biz it'll depend on how the deal was structured whether and how much the Saudi state benefits or is hurt by high oil prices. They are diversifying.

Posted By chrs on 02 Apr 2016 09:37 AM
Rats. Marginal CO2 emissions are higher for off peak hours than for peak hous in New England.

http://www.iso-ne.com/static-assets/documents/2016/01/2014_emissions_report.pdf

Does that mean I should buy a tank and shift my use to peak hours? Probably not, as the difference is small.

The difference is small, and getting smaller, now that FERC Order 745 has been fully legalized by the US Supreme Court. ISO-NE is planning to have a fully developed demand response program in place by June 2018, at which point time-of-day differences in carbon footprints will shrink.

In most New England states it's possible to buy 100% renewables power through third party brokers, billed out by the local utility. In some cases it'll be even cheaper to go all-renewables than the utility's standard mix (but not usually.)

Using ISO-NE's 2014 data set for calculating carbon footprint is already pretty stale data. Since the time that was compiled there have been coal-fired generation retirements, as well as enough wind & solar (on both sides of the meter) added to move the needle a bit. Without a better crystal ball it's tough to make the carbon footprint analysis over the lifecycle of a heat pump, but it's not impossible to make some educated estimates based on the Clean Power Plan's projections & targets. ( http://www.greenbuildingadvisor.com/blogs/dept/guest-blogs/carbon-footprint-minisplits ) No model is going to be perfect, and it's a rapidly evolving scenario. Drying to correct for time-of-day carbon footprint is "in the noise" compared the likely differences between what's projected and what will eventually come to be. As offshore wind projects come online in New England (which will likely happen within the lifecycle of a heat pump, now that Dansk Olie og Naturgas has gotten into the game here), the overnight carbon footprint may drop to near-zero during the winter months. OTOH, five years ago I thought Cape Wind would already be online by now.

Thanks, Dana. I actually do purchase 100% renewables. But I also realize that the timing of when my heat pump actually runs still has a small impact on what fossil generators are dispatched.

I am hoping that I'll eventually have an opportunity to participate in demand response as a homeowner (and as the owner of a few small insulated water tanks). I would see that as being more directly helpful towards renewable integration than a fixed-schedule time-of-day rate plan. But I am not sure how long it will take for that to be an option for residential customers--I don't seen any indication that that will be included in the June 2018 scenario. I'd be delighted to hear about it if I am wrong about that.

During times of high wind this winter the LMP in much of the ISO-NE grid went price negative for an hour or more. As more wind gets built this will become commonplace. Heat pump loads would help mitigate those revenue-losing periods for slow ramping fossil burners or must-run nukes.

Time of use rates are available to some residential customers in New England right now, but not everywhere. Aggregated demand response programs are coming, but there won't even be a market to bid them into in New England prior to 1 June 2018. People with secure Wi-Fi enabled thermostats will likely have programs to subscribe to in 2018, but at this early date I can't point you to one. Grid-aware hot water heaters are coming too, but SFAIK not yet commercially available in New England.

https://nest.com/support/article/What-is-Rush-Hour-Rewards

http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/honeywell-launches-new-thermostat-for-auto-demand-response

http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/congress-comes-together-on-bill-for-grid-enabled-water-heaters