Yes Gme, all the local guys suggested 4 or more tons. 1 even suggested he can't promise the aux coil won't run with out additional loops. Not sure how many actually ran and compared op cost software (besides me). My findings were the 3 ton was cheaper to operate than the 4 with 4 ton loop field and obviously cheaper to install. The balance point was very low and the % indicated was 100 (doesn't do fractional and shows some aux usage so it must be the last 1/2%).
I can tell you I'd recommend a 3 ton here with the same numbers and mid MI has more HDD than PA.
You might recall I mentioned 3 ton 1 stage operated about the same price range as well.
The only consequence to a contractor of oversizing a system is that his customer will pay more. The consequence to the 1 local guy that suggests a 3 ton is he may be discarded for being the odd man out.
It is as more a philosophical than a practical difference in my mind, but the consequence is all on the buyer.
j

I'm with Joe - 3 tons will almost certainly result in substantially lower lifetime system ownership cost (combined cost to buy and cost to operate); probably on the order of several thousand dollars given the high first cost per ton and extremely limited benefit of tons above 3 in this case

Yes typo on locale. And yes to jonrs reasons for lifespan. I"m sure other contractors here went thru Tranes' Tyler tx plant when snowball was running. It was a compressor that ran for 27+ years continuously in a liquid flood back state... http://www.qcchvac.com/trane_snowball.html . I have friend with a semi that has 1.6m miles on original motor and trans over the road 3to 4Kmi between shutdowns yet a local route truck may only get 400k out of a motor. I 'm not sure about winding rub but inrush current I would add.