Posted By ICFHybrid on 05 Apr 2012 12:34 AM

And no, I do not consider ductless systems an alternative to comfortably heat your house in cold climates.

Unfortunately for your theory, the NW Ductless Heat Pump Initiative has now installed more than 15,000 ductless minis in WA, OR, ID and MT with a remarkably high customer satisfaction rate.

Maybe you are thinking more about the high end of what might be considered a "cold climate"....

Their study employs results mainly from Oregon and Washington with only ~10% from Idaho and Montana.....and did you notice the number of "highly satisfied customers" polled (out of the 15,000+ units sold)? 67.
I presume that's the study quoted as no link was offered (though I think I know why).  
Also interesting to note; it would seem that Daiken is not very popular with this group by comparison to Mishi or Fuji (must not have spent as many promo bucks).

Why did folks select ductless?:

Wanted to reduce heating bill	29 (43%)
Needed additional or supplemental heating	18 (27%)
Needed space conditioning but did not have/want ducts	16 (24%)
Wanted to add cooling where none was installed before	14 (21%)
Needed additional or supplemental cooling	12 (18%)
Rebates or incentives	5 (1%)
Alternative to wood	4 (<1%)

According to this table, ductless is a good fit when ducts aren't available (who knew?). So whether you are replacing electric baseboard or putting an addition on and don't want to add electric baseboard or you want cooling and don't want a window shaker, DASHPs are a good fit.

DUH.

and did you notice the number of "highly satisfied customers" polled (out of the 15,000+ units sold)? 67

Now, you've lost all objectivity and are just trying to twist things to support your own interests.

The facts are that the DHP effort is a multi-year project and you are referring to a single evaluation period. It was not an attempt to tabulate all participants. The report clearly states that respondents were sampled to reflect the relative populations of the states in the program. In any case, both Washington and Oregon have Cold Climates east of the Cascades, so to imagine whatever it is you are imagining about the locations is unproductive.

The larger numbers of Mitsu and Fuji units reflect the fact that a larger number of dealers stock them. Daikin is a relative newcomer and it stands to reason that the number of installed units would be fewer. Not sure why you think that is a valid point of discussion.

(must not have spent as many promo bucks).

The facts are that the project is conducted by the Northwest Energy Efficiency Alliance, which is funded by the regional utilities in an effort to (surprise!) improve residential energy efficiency. Your gybe that it is about manufacturers promoting their own products is not only invalid, but indicates what you are about.

This project and its results are offered as evidence that ductless minis are being installed in large numbers in what are generally considered cold climates with very high customer satisfaction.

"Slightly more than a quarter (28%) of the respondents indicated that the
DHP had been unable to meet their heating expectations at least once."
-- Northwest Ductless Heat Pump Initiative, Final Report (page A-7)

http://neea.org/research/reports/E11-229_combined.pdf

Ha Ha. Did you see that some of them reported the units unable to meet heating expectations because "the power was out"?

If you read the report, you will see that many of these units replaced older, less efficient sources of heat, including wood stoves or resistance heat. I'm a big proponent of having backup heat which enables you to cover the peak periods while still having a comfortable efficient heat source the majority of the time.

The proof is in the continuing results which report remarkably high levels of satisfaction, particularly with the comfort of the heat and the sound of the units.

According to that table WHAT? "...when ducts are not available?".

43% went with them simply to reduce the heating bill, which says nothing about ducts.

27% went with it for supplemental/additional heating which also doesn't mention ducts.

24% went with ductless because they didn't WANT ducts.

Some may have even removed or blocked off existing ducts (as my mother did.)

Others may have kept the ducts functional, and simply opted to have two distinct heating systems. My uncle kept his ducts, but doesn't run the propane-fired furnace anymore (turned off the valve, and the power switch) and is totally satisified heating with a 1-head mini-split solution. He could have done ducted air source or geo, and in fact considered those options.

Sorry, that's all I've got so far- it's not a very big sample. But 100% of the mini-split retrofits in that area that I have first-person feedback on came with existing functional ducted solutions prior to the mini-split, and don't use those ducts post-minisplit. I'm not quite sure how you're drawing the conclusion that it's only about when ducts aren't available (at least based on that table.)

Under that project there is no attempt to retrofit the building envelope or make ductless a 100% heating solution for those homes, and are only looking at the economic benefit for the ratepayers and for the utility subsidizing the ductless. In the copious online research reporting there were several performance comparisons to existing ducted systems (primarily in ID, IIRC), which had sub-2 seasonal average COPs. I'm sure many of those homes under the program wouldn't cut it with a single mini-split solution without some envelope upgrades, but so what? A 3-4 head 2.5 & 3 ton system can handle quite a variety of homes, but would also be overkill for many pre-McMansion homes in that region.

My mother's house (acquired last spring) came with well-insulated & tight ducts (tighness & insulation verified by the utility during an audit), yet the openness of the floor plan and low heat load made single-head 1.5 ton Mr. Slim a slam dunk Leaving the doors open to the bathrooms and bedrooms keeps the delta-Ts between rooms well bounded. The ducted air-source units available would have been oversized for the load, less efficient, and more expensive. We considered a 2-head multi-split to be able to zone the master-bedroom/bath, but since she prefers it cooler for sleeping we stuck with the single in the more open zone. In practice she has to close the bedroom door to keep it sufficiently cooler there for her liking, but if left open the delta-T during average winter conditions is less than 3F. (The windows are relatively small, so it's not very lossy.) If she wanted to keep it 68F in the bedroom she'd have to "tolerate" a 71F temp in the living room.

I'm not sure why Daikin doesn't have as big a market presence in the PNW, but the first Altherma installation in North America was a radiant floor app in Portland OR about 3 years ago. (Installed Jacobs Heating & Air conditioning, who also does geo & mini-splits, ducted air-source.) See: http://constructiveform.com/docs/constructive-form_daikin-altherma_sep09.pdf ) Worldwide Daikin doesn't have nearly the presence of Fujitsu, Mitsubishi, or Sanyo, so it may just be the smaller-company distribution chain issue. (Why Sanyo doesn't figure more prominently in the PNW is another question.) But they make good stuff. Both Daikin & Sanyo are well represented on the qualifying model lists for the program though. When soliciting proposals for my mother's mini-split, based on the numbers of certified installers within 40 miles of her place Mitsubishi practically owns the market in her county, with Fujitsu coming in a distant second (we did get one proposal from a Fujitsu installer.)

There's nothing in the table that indicates the customer satisfaction aspects. But if you're making a post-installation satisfaction survey, you can put my relative in the "satisfied" column.

Posted By ICFHybrid on 06 Apr 2012 10:31 AM
Now, you've lost all objectivity and are just trying to twist things to support your own interests.

ICFHybrid, are you ever going to tell us about your "geothermal system" or was it made up so you could "twist things to support your own interests"?

Posted By ICFHybrid on 06 Apr 2012 11:17 AM
The proof is in the continuing results which report remarkably high
levels of satisfaction, particularly with the comfort of the heat ...

Reading a little further, on page A-7:

"Of the 28 respondents who indicated that the heating did not
meet their expectations, 19 reported that the DHP did not
function optimally in extremely cold weather."

Of course, "remarkably high levels of satisfaction" is a conveniently
squishy phrase. OTOH, the data sez: (19/28) x 28% = 19% failures.

So, nearly one-in-five systems failed due to "extremely cold weather."
That's in a population with a significant fraction of its units installed
in decidedly mild climates, (on the western side of the Cascades).
Thus, failure rates in the colder regions must be far higher than 19%.

Bottom line: Lower your expectations -- or move to Puget Sound.

Looby

So, nearly one-in-five systems failed due to "extremely cold weather."

It's a big jump from "did not function optimally in extremely cold weather" to your conclusion that 19% were failures.

I live on the West side of the Cascades, but with 5700 HDD, it still qualifies as a "cold climate".

The facts remain that year in and year out, the participants continue to report remarkably high levels of satisfaction.

Posted By ICFHybrid on 06 Apr 2012 09:25 PM
The facts remain that year in and year out, the participants
continue to report remarkably high levels of satisfaction.

The FACT remains that -- according to the report that YOU referenced -- those
"remarkably high satisfaction" DHP systems failed to meet the expectations
of no fewer than 19% of customers. So, the only thing "remarkably high" around
here appears to be your ability to filter out inconvenient customer feedback.

...hard numbers trump self-serving industrial-strength spin,

Looby

So, the only thing "remarkably high" around
here appears to be your ability to filter out inconvenient customer feedback.

Look at the summary paragraph titled "Participant Satisfaction". It very clearly says;

"All except one respondent also reported that they had (61%) or would (37%) recommend the DHP to a friend or colleague."

...hard numbers trump self-serving industrial-strength spin,

How can this possibly be self-serving? Weren't you caught intentionally misrepresenting a Wiki passage not too long ago in another effort to salvage a losing argument? Would appear that's more your M.O.

Posted By Looby on 06 Apr 2012 11:57 AM
...the data sez: (19/28) x 28% = 19% failures.

Posted By ICFHybrid on 07 Apr 2012 01:09 AM
"All except one respondent also reported that they had (61%) or would (37%) recommend the DHP to a friend or colleague."

With friends like this, who needs enemies. 

Between this survey and many other posts of problems with ductless systems, ductless systems sure seem "troublesome".

Posted By geome on 07 Apr 2012 08:31 AM
With friends like this, who needs enemies.

It's called cognitive dissonance:

Page A-7:
Of the 28 respondents who indicated that the heating did not
meet their expectations ...

Page A-9:
All except one respondent indicated that their overall experience
with the DHP has met their expectations ...

Page A-9:
The most popular reasons participants would recommend the
DHP were financial benefits (29), increased comfort (12), ...

So, 12 out of 70 participants (17%) noted increased comfort,
while 41% were favorably impressed by the lower utility bills.

Executive summary: DHP reduces the cost of shivering.

Looby


"Why, sometimes I've believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast."
-- The White Queen

Guys,

no one questions that putting a ductless ASHP in your house can be beneficial. It can reduce your heatbill by supplementing your current heat source, provide A/C you might never had, or even heat your whole house most of the time when you have an open floor plan and a small house. Many customers in that survey might achieved their goal and were therefore satisfied.

But to compare a ductless heat system to a whole house distribution system is really comparing apples to oranges. It is like comparing a whole house radiant system to a single radiator placed in the middle of the house. While floorplans are more open today, people still do not want to keep their bedroom doors open. And then the kids bedrooms are upstairs. What do we do? Put a high wall unit in the hallway? Even my 8 year old daughter wants "privacy"!

While efficiency and cold weather applications have improved dramatically, inverter compressor technology is migrating now into GSHPs, increasing the efficiency again far beyond ASHPs. The reliability and efficiency of a ground sourced loop, especially in cold climates, will not go away.

You'd think that regulars on a site devoted to innovation could think outside the box.... In distribution by low speed continuous circulation, there's no need for return ducts or open doors. You do need a supertight, well insulated envelope. Joe likes to describe this approach as my pet project, but I believe I have just described hvac in a passivehaus design, minus the heat pump. Don't bet the farm on super efficient GSHP, docjenser. What minisplits have that GSHP units don't is mass production driving prices down. I fail to see how making geo even more expensive aids the cause.

I've been a few blocks down the PassivHaus (PH) road. I'll allow that with particular care paid to every room's windows (almost certainly European imports), walls, floors, ceilings, exposures and other loads and perfectly functioning finicky ERVs, it is possible to heat the central area and ventilate to meet perimeter loads. From what I've been able to gather, it can work, though at great expense relative to payback. Economies of scale that benefit PH in Europe have not yet washed up on our shores. The required insulation levels run somewhere between insane and astronomical...a foot of foam beneath slabs...R100 ceilings...

What I have yet to see proven is PH managing hot humid weather. PH spec allows 10% deviation from a 25*C (77*F) maximum interior temperature. That's 10% of the time. No distinction appears to be made as to whether an hour of deviation consists of the interior temperature being 78...or 88...or 98. Furthermore, 10% may not seem like much, but would seem to allow 876 hours (10 % of a year) above 77*F. That seems to me to mean a house in a hot climate could exceed 77 from 2 PM until midnight for 3 months straight and still meet the PH "comfort" standard.

I grew up in New England w/o airconditioning. Several days each summer we endured aweltering nights where it was very difficult to get to sleep. This was viewed as an anomaly, part of life. Can any of us contractors sell such conditions today? I think not.

I realize I've drifted a bit away from the central premise of this thread, but it is eminently fair to ask whether a ductless solution can meet the comfort expectations of today's homeowners. If it is used to beat the heat a month or two per year, then yes, maybe. OTOH, my typical Man J calls for a pantry needing 15 CFM, a master bath needing 75; within which a commode closet needs 10 CFM...a pair of walk in closets need 12 and 17 CFM respectively, and the laundry room needs 23 CFM. I can easily do all that with a couple hundred bucks worth of flex duct and manual dampers...how do minisplits handle those rooms?

how do minisplits handle those rooms?

I draw my HRV exhaust from those rooms anyway. That gets them "handled".

I am answering the people who say it can't be done, Curt. I think we can say confidently that it won't be done in any great numbers for years. I wouldn't build my house as a contractor unless the owners signed a waiver saying they'll take what they get. What you are missing is that many if not most homeowners are obliged to take what they can afford, including thermostats set at 60 for the entire winter. The $5k solution, being more affordable, is better even if it doesn't provide perfect comfort.

I am not after passivehaus. Been there, done that on your point about RH. An 18kbtu heat pump is 50 percent oversized for cooling for the whole house, and 200 percent oversized for the room it will cool directly. The key is a small house and an open design, which is going to be mainstream any time soon either.

Posted By ICFHybrid on 07 Apr 2012 11:16 PM

how do minisplits handle those rooms?

I draw my HRV exhaust from those rooms anyway. That gets them "handled".

ICFHybrid, is not your house still under construction?  Are you currently living in it?  If not, how do you know how well it is "handled"?  Some honesty would be appreciated by all here.

ICFHybrid, is not your house still under construction?

I own a number of homes. Why is this so hard for you to understand?  Your repeated statements that I am "dishonest" is offensive, even for you.

Posted By ICFHybrid on 08 Apr 2012 11:49 AM

ICFHybrid, is not your house still under construction?

I own a number of homes. Why is this so hard for you to understand?  Your repeated statements that I am "dishonest" is offensive, even for you.

ICFHybrid, you dance around direct questions with half answers (including your response above), hence the appropriate comments questioning your honesty and knowledge.  If you are offended why not answer direct questions with direct answers from this point forward?

Are you currently living in the house that you claim to have a ductless system with the ERV properly "handling" the conditioning of the rooms that Engineer mentioned?

Do you have an operational geothermal system in one of your houses in which you installed a "troublesome" loop?  What loop problems have you experienced? 

You have relevant pictures to share, right?

I can certainly understand you not answering if the answers would be lies and you are afraid of a law suit.