Show me the numbers- I tend to believe folks that actually measure stuff, and most of the current crop of edison-base LED bulb-replacements put out barely half the luminosity per watt of even cheap box-store CFLs, and none of them have anything like isotropic dispersion patterns. (They're cones/beams of light.)

CFLs are labor intensive, not capital intensive (all o' them twisty-tubes are done by hand!), so your argument of capitalization costs of CFL plants needing pay off needs documentation, eh?   CFLs have been around for decates now, well beyond the time scales of light-manufacturing NPV analyses.   The manufacturing chases low labor cost in moderate-to-high tech economies. (ergo China is the sweet spot, for now.) 

By contrast, LED fabrication (like any semiconductor process) IS capital intensive.  Yes, the price will come down, but until the luminous efficiency goes up there will be considerable material & capital cost to the heat-sinking required to keep 'em going.

Also the real cost (both to the manufacture and environment) in manufacturing LED compared to CFL's favors LED's as well. LED are far cheaper, easier and use fewer raw materials to produce.

Dana1
The problem you are finding with the off the shelf- current crop- of LED replacement lamps is because most are designed with the 3 -5 mm LEDs.
These units are a very tiny LED chip encapsulated in optic resin. The resin forms the 3-5mm body and is cast to form a lens over the chip. This casted lens body can focus the LED light at a specfic angle. Some manufactures like Nichia have severel models of the same LED chip but with different beam angles.
You can buy any of these LEDs from Mouser or some other similar supplier. In quantity you will see that they can cost less than $1 each depending on the color and lumin output.
The dispersion pattern of a LED with no lens is near 180 degrees. Some depending on design will emit at even greater angles. It depends on the die used. The filament of an ordinary lamp is suspended in air and can thus emit light in a spherical pattern. LEDs, because of the required die have a front and back. 180 degrees or slightly more is the best you will get.
Look into LEDs from Phillips-Lumiled and Lamina. There are many more manufactures, I just have experience with them.
These 2 company's make high power LEDs with output levels from 20-100 times the output of the 3-5mm LEDs.
However, they are very expensive. I have used some some units that cost over $25 a piece.
You can also buy separate lenses to focus the light from 5 to 180 degrees in several different patterns.
I have designed and built several systems using these LEDs and used the lenses to good effect. They even have lenses to couple the LED to an optic fiber, I have a design in progress for that.
As for efficiency may I suggest you look into the power to luminosity tables from these same manufactures.
The real problem is when will a major manufacturer build a direct replacement for the Edison lamp?
I can think of a couple of designs using LEDs. Costly though given the initial cost of the LED, the rest is easy and cheap.

The LEDs themselves (as in the li'l hunk o' shinin' semiconductor) have a relatively low environmental footprint, but the amount of aluminum required to heat sink any LED assemblies that exceed 500 lumens tends to be significant.  CFLs are mostly glass by weight, with far less embodied energy and mining impact than the aluminum heat sinking in an LED assembly.

How much cheap raw material & energy went into one state-of-the-LED-art 650 lumen "bulb"  (at 54lumens per watt it's approaching CFL efficiency, unlike most which are in the 30-45 range.):

http://www.smarterlight.com/product/DL58-E27-12W:A001

.....compared to 10 of these:

http://www.globalindustrial.com/gcs/prod/30133986/i/productInfo.web?utm_source=google_pr&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=CompactFluoresce-google_pr

Then there's the mercury issue:  CFLs contain about 5 millgrams of mercury, true, but if it's twice as efficient as current LED technology, the difference in environmental mercury release from coal burning to support the grid (US power is still ~50% from coal) during the useful life cycle of the CFL (let alone the lifetime of the LED assembly) is large.  Roughly half an order of magnitude more mercury is released by the powerplants than is in the CFL to keep it lit, which means about an order of magnitude more more mercury is released by the luminosity-equivlalent LED that uses 2x the power.  This equation may change in 25 years as the grid gets greener, but not in the lifetime of a CFL.

Until luminous efficiencies of LEDs truly exceed CFLs (and they will, some day), the argument for LEDs over CFL don't really cut it from an overall environmental impact.  They're way better than old-skool incandescent, but they're oversold on "greenliness" in comparison to CFL technology.

That said, they're far more shock-resistant, don't have the same issues with lower temps that CFLs do.  The color-rendering is getting better every year.  When they hit 80lumens/watt (measured power at the AC powerlines, luminosity measured in a full Edison base retrofit bulb assembly, not naked on the test bench DC power & luminosity, as in many press releases), then their time will have come.

Dana1
Check out Lumiled Rebels
100 lumins at 1 watt
Heat sinking required is not a chunk of aluminum but a 2 sided circuit board the size of a postage stamp.
Cost $4.40
Wave of the future.
6 months ago they cost $18 if you could get them.

http://www.philipslumileds.com/pdfs/DS56.pdf

That's more like 90lm/watt typical (and 70lm/watt worst-case, but still in-spec.) for the best-rated ones, if you can read the spec, do the math...

....and that's at 25C (which they typically won't be in an assembly)...

... and with power measured as DC at the LED mount substrate, (not AC power)...

...and luminosity at the module, not in an assembly.

Assume a 10% power loss from the AC>DC conversion for an edison base retrofit assembly

Assume a 10% luminous loss from elevated temperature (with or without heat sinking...  see p14 of the spec, assume they hit 60C sometimes in a 8W+ assembly without forced draft.)

Assume a 20% hit from optics to get the dispersion angle greater than 180 degrees (as-shipped you're at half-intensity at the edge of the 140 degree cone.) Or maybe only 10% for optics in a spot-lighting configuration.

In the real world they would hit at best 55 (or maybe even 60 in a spotlight) in-edison-base-assembly-lumens per AC-power-watt (truly!).  Then it would take something like 10-12 LEDs (and a big heat sink to keep 'em cool enough) to deliver a not-so bright 650 lumens, which is about where the Cree LR6 lives, eh?  Yet a $2 twisty beats 'em on efficiency.

But in low-power spotlighting applications there's no CFL that can deliver the crisp shadow edge of an LED, and they'll beat the best glass-packaged halogen efficiencies by a factor of 3 or more.

I'm not down on LEDs, but I hate the fact that the hype is way ahead of reality (especially for higher luminosity ambient illumination applications.)  The disinformation campaign has people convince they're ahead of CFLs on efficiency & enviro footprint when the facts suggest the converse is true.

Show me the ambient-lighting luminosity assembly that really beats the equivalent CFL then we're talkin'! (Not some flashlight or headlamp LED on a ceramic substrate.)

FWIW, I've designed power electronics for several LED illuminators- most recently for eye-surgery equipment- I'm perhaps TOO familiar with the features & faults of LED technology. :-)

zircote do you post over on Candle Power Forums? I got to see one of high wattage lumiled prototypes, I can't comment yet on what exactly what it was, but very nice ;) Seoul also has some nice chips (P7) out in the 90 lumen per watt range as well.

Brock
No, not yet.
Dana1,
I am with you on the hype.
But using lenses to achieve greater than 180 degree coverage would be pointless.
Better to use a different assembly.
I tried some samples of the blue Rebels.
The 2 sided board they describe looked dodgy to begin with but after testing it really worked well.
However, large assembles would cause a thermal problem in a small space like a lamp.
As for lm per watt depends on the color.
Personally, I think the manufacturers have yet to really deal with a replacement type of fixture.
All of the current lamp designs are bound by the LED package which was never intended for ambient light.
With a bit of engineering LED packages could be built to address this problem. A direct replacement lamp made with a LED designed for such a purpose, still a dream.
In the mean time we are forced to make something into something it really is not.
And, still the wave of the future.

The fundamental nature of how standard LEDs work makes them highly directional- it's only partially a packaging issue.  Directionality can be good for task lighting & spot lighting, and there is definitely a future for discrete LEDs for those applications.  But it generally sucks for ambient lighting, since highly directional luminosity induces glare- without good lighting design practices you end up with light that is less useful per delivered lumen.

The real wave of the future will be organic LEDs (OLED) in dimmable luminous sheets doing the heavy-lifting of filling in the ambient (the lamp shade, wall or ceiling could be the light source), discrete LEDs for task & accent lighting.  With lower contrast between the brightest and average luminosity in the lit field the human eye can function well at lower overall ambient luminosity.  With discrete LEDs the only way to acheive the even-field luminosity is indirect lighting (wall washes, cove lighting).  In fixtures like shaded floor lamps & table lamps they're pretty miserable- being forced into an application to which they're not inherently well- adapted.  (Their inherent attributes serve extremely well in spot lighting however.)  OLEDs are starting to get there on efficiency, but still have longevity issues.

I think at this point my comments have thoroughly high jacked the original point of this thread.
Is there a decent direct replacement lamp for an Edison bulb made with LEDs?
My answer is no.
There are a few worthwhile direct replacements for halogen spots.
I think OLEDs are really cool, and will have a future, however, in their current form they would need to be sold as a unit not a replacement type of lamp. They will probably make a good splash in commercial applications.
My humble opinion is still unchanged, if the LED manufactures wanted too they could easily produce low wattage lamps to compete with similar sized CFLs.
Sorry for stepping on anyone's toes.

I think we drifted Way Off course with this discussion, and it's all Chris's fault. He asked a very simple question [possibly phrased incorrectly-- Especially for an engineering type mind], however my comment still stands. I found a way to do this change-over, wasn't cheap, am happy with the results and that's what counts for the end user!!

We don't want to re-design a light bulb plant! We just want good lighting, that we can call GREEN, that will be around and functional for a long time to come.

Chris, I guess the answer is, NO!!    Glenn

Glenn;

I figured that out a year ago, but I am confident that the prices will come down in a couple years as the technology advances. Businesses are already investing and  converting to LEDs for the long term energy savings. Its just a matter of time before its affordable to the regular guy.
Its good to see the thread still alive, I save all the links for future reference

Thanks to all for their input

Just got this in an email this morning

http://hccled.com/products

attached is HCC LED T-8 price list

Sams club now sells LED light bulbs.  A pack of 3 is $15.00 and they are 2 watts I think.  Look great but VERY dim. 

I agree that OLED will be the interior lighting of the future
LED will probably be used only for SPOTS or focused lighting
I tried some experiences with different leds, and some Electro-luminescent white panels
the ELP are way off power versus price vs life
almost ridiculous, but they show the potential of large OLED white panels such as researched currently by GE and some others
unannounced companies

then i tried the 120/240 ACRICHE from SSC
not very efficient, very low CRI from what i like
lots of blue passes through the phosphor, wich makes weird tints even with 3000k samples
did i say very expensive? still from 15 to 25$ for a double one
but runs directly on 120V ... i am still a bit affraid of 60hz flickering effect though

the i played with what i consider current best pick
Luxeon K2
wow
very very nice CRI
i was able to efficiently light a small bathroom
wich great color and quality with only 3 units at 3000k-3200k
was at around 80% power
runs not too hot if not drived at maximum current
so it will be easily heatsinked
and the best part, worth from 2.5$ to 4$ each on futureelectronics

i then started to search for power supplies that could support multiple K2
with a dimmable feature

i only found the expensive ones form Advance owned by Phillips :p
i was quoted at 70$CAD/unit for 20 units for my project
rated life is 50K hours + if i remember correctly
so it will match the led easily


my personal project wich is my new house,
will require 500-600 K2 LEDS will i will install in ceilings mostly
in all of my house
i would like to be able to use 95% of LEDS for my interior lighting
unforutnatly OLED is not ready yet, but my house is

i will have aluminum composite panels for all ceilings of my house
wich will double as very veyr large heatsinks for all of the LEDS


and about retrofitting, i personally think that there is no real good products right now,
simply because their prices doesn't justify the trade offs and the meager gains

JinMTVT, could you elaborate about the aluminum composite panels for the ceilings in your house? Brand name or link?

Alucobond.com ( expensive..but the coating is almost unscratchable )
alubond.com ( rolled in usa...easy to scratch ..but prices are competitive with chinese products of inferior quality..and NAFTA :)

maybe other manufacturers

was in SAMs CLUB yesterday and they had 3 - packs of 40w LED candelabera and 40w reg LED bulbs for $14.99 .............. Finally some progress in affordability, if they can soon have 60w. & floods at similar pricing it will now become practical to make the switch

Hello,


Have you tried to search it on ebay or any similar sites, there you can get your LED lights.


Regards,
sarah_9



Commercial Property