I agree with that. Not so clear is the heat pump. If you can pay $2000 for a HP and then reduce the $8000 in solar panels to less than $4000, that probably makes sense.

I agree with Dana1 the simple and elegant solution of PV + resistance heating is a big plus.
I'm also assuming you are referring to an air to air heat pump and that one will not work well in my setup since I have about 5 to 6 hours of full sun in winter an probably generate over 30kWh in heat. If I release all that heat in the 5 to 6 our interval in the air the air temperature will rise quite a lot probably over the point of comfort since the concrete slab and other thermal mass object will be quite slow at absorbing that amount of heat from the air.
I can make some calculations but it will not work for sure.
And a air to water HP will probably be more expensive and even higher maintenance.
The solar PV are so cheap now that many manufactures prefer to buy land install the solar panels and sell electricity instead of selling the solar panels so not sure if the price can go much lower than it currently is.

I agree - an air to water heat pump is what you would want and there aren't many available in north america and prices are high. Water to water would work but ground loops can be expensive and open loop (excluding standing column) has disposal challenges. You would need about 2.5 tons to generate the heat in the limited hours you have, but that's not an unusual size. $5000+ in a HP system to save $5000 in panels wouldn't make sense. Perhaps better to spend a fraction of that on trees to block the wind (does this make much difference any more?) or insulating shades for the windows. Or maybe a small wood boiler.

Panel pricing for PV still has plenty of room to fall.  Estimates from industry analysts are saying 36 cents/watt by 2017, and even that my prove to be too high.  There are competing low cost kerfless thin-silicon technologies that have still yet to hit full production, but they are clearly coming.  The silicon casting technology developed at 1366 just won a round of venture funding for building a large scale automated production plant, and GT Advanced Technology (Shanghai) just bought the proton-induced exfoliation cleaving IP from Twin Creeks in order to bring it into full commercial production, and those are just two of the low-cost high-efficiency silicon PV techologies on the horizon. 

At some price point the additional complexity of heat pumps lose their attraction, provided you have the real estate for enough PV, and that point is closer that I ever would have believed a couple of years ago.

Full system costs for rooftop PV in the US are dominated by "the rest of the system" (the racking, inverters, permitting & inspection, utility oversight, etc.) but the all-in cost for grid tied is under $4/watt installed in some places. Jigar Shah (founder of Sun Edison, a third-party ownership solar developer) was saying a couple of weeks ago that a company in Texas is projecting $1.65/watt for small scale grid-tied PV for 2014, due in part to some innovative low labor low-cost racking systems developed in India, and streamlined permitting in some of the Texas cities where they operate.   The average installed cost in Germany has already crossed under $2.50/watt, so it's not an insane proposition. 

It's been hard to dispel the long-held notion that PV is expensive. While that was true 10 years ago, or even 5 years ago, it seems almost like in about another 20 minutes PV is going to have the lowest lifecycle per kwh/cost of any grid source.  Certainly by 2025 that will be the case, and it may happen before 2020. With panel costs hitting at $360/kilowatt in only ~3 years, they won't need a subsidy or optimal shading factors to be economic in most of the US. As the rest of system costs fall, the grid is going to be swamped in distributed PV.  The only questions will be how much of the grid-storage necessary for grid-stabilty will be utility owned, and how much of it can be cheaply integrated into homes & businesses.

Panel pricing for PV still has plenty of room to fall. Estimates from industry analysts are saying 36 cents/watt by 2017, and even that my prove to be too high.

Interesting read. The drop in price is from 50cent/watt to 36cent/watt that will not translate in much saving on the end user side since is just about 14 cent/watt compared to current prices.
On this classic crystalline-silicone panels the glass the aluminum frame and the encapsulation materials have a large impact in the cost.
They are still heavy and large so the shipping is still a big factor in the final price.
If lower cost solar panels will be available in the future they will probably have a different structure maybe in the form of paint or something that is smaller and less expensive/watt to ship and produce.
Still the future will be interesting when energy will be so inexpensive and the level of automation so high that employing human workers will not make sense in almost any field.
That and the large investments in artificial intelligence will soon make us obsolete.
I just hope governments have a solution for this since it already started.

But I think I deviate from the subject especially the original subject so I will just en up with this.

For now if you already have a natural gas connection is better to use that for home heating.
If is a new house and not very large then solar PV for heating can be a solution since it will probably be costing close to the connection fee and there is no monthly bill after than.

What is the effect of snow or frost on PV?

Posted By FBBP on 13 Nov 2013 11:52 PM
What is the effect of snow or frost on PV?

In my case with a 26.6 deg. tilt to match the 6:12 pitch of the garage/workshop roof, the snow will shut the PV panels down for a day or two until the snow melts (but this is a sunny climate). Often I get anxious to restore full power, and use a roof rake to clear them. Even partial shading from snow will pretty much shut them down.

The solar thermal panel on the roof of the house is at 36.9 deg. tilt to match the 9:12 pitch of that roof, and it clears of snow much quicker than the PV panels. Folks in snow country that have the panels mounted separately from the house often use a high tilt angle, especially in the winter, to avoid snow issues.

I sort of like the idea of some "dumb" PV panels (without inverter) for space heating. I will look into it further, although it does not make economic sense in my situation with inexpensive natural gas. Also, heat storage would have to be addressed.

What is the effect of snow or frost on PV?

It depends if is just a thin layer of snow there will still be some power generation but the reduction is quite serious.
Not sure you seen the photo with my panels on page two they are tilted at 65 degrees so snow will not stay on them and they are also really easy to clean if really needed.
At this angle I get a really good winter energy production but reduced in the summer (there will still be more energy generated in the summer even at this angle).
The way they are mounted now allows me to change the angle in the summer if I really need to.
The angle of the panels will also depend on you location.

I sort of like the idea of some "dumb" PV panels (without inverter) for space heating. I will look into it further, although it does not make economic sense in my situation with inexpensive natural gas. Also, heat storage would have to be addressed.

Yes heat storage if is not part of the house can be an issue, will add to the complexity an cost.
I do not know way thermal mass is not as important for many people as the thermal insulation is.

I intend to try some Aquapel on my solar panel. It works well for ice on the car.